Agriant Commodities------------ 24-07-2022 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Jul 25, 2022
- 4 min read
Agriant Commodities------------ 24-07-2022 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
A deal has been reached to allow grain from Ukraine to be exported unhindered through what is called a safe corridor in the Black Sea. If this agreement can be implemented, 20-25 million tons of Ukrainian grain will not rot in silos and will be shipped to their destinations.
The signing ceremony took place in Istanbul with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and President Recep Tayyib Erdogan of Turkey as host and facilitator. Present were, representatives from Ukraine (Minister of Infrastructure), Russia (Minister of Defense) and Turkey (Minister of Defense).
A couple of notes about the signing ceremony: The Russians and Ukrainians signed different texts (with the UN and Turkey) and not with each other. There are two separate, but complementing agreements.
There was no press conference after the signing ceremony. The message was that this is a unique arrangement to overcome a food crisis, which is a humanitarian issue. Apart from that, the two sides do not want to talk to each other and the war continues.
however :
A breakthrough deal to unblock Ukraine grain shipments is on a knife-edge following missile strikes on a key Ukrainian port Saturday
Odesa port was hit by alleged Russian missiles yesterday morning - just hours after Kyiv and Moscow signed an agreement to allow wheat and maize exports from Ukraine.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of "barbarism", saying the attack had “destroyed the very possibility” of dialogue with Moscow.
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Sep '22 (ZWU22)
759 Closing
Wheat futures fell nearly 6% on Friday to their lowest level since February after Russia and Ukraine signed a landmark deal to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports, traders said.
Chicago Board of Trade September wheat settled down 47-1/4 cents at $7.59 per bushel after dipping to $7.54, the contract’s lowest since Feb. 4.
Russia's top diplomat reassured Egyptian leaders Sunday that their orders for Russian grain would be met as he began a tour of African countries dependent on imports for their food supply.
"We confirmed the commitment of Russian exporters of cereal products to meet their orders in full," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference after talks with Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry.
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro # 385 usd Container Asia
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro # 355 USD FOB
Wheat, Romania 12.5 # 365 USD , MATIF
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver 410 USD FOB
Wheat, feed, Black Sea # 370 usd Container Asia
Wheat SRW # 2.39 WU2 Container Asia
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #385 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #410 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean Sep '22 (ZSU22)
1327 Closing
Soybean Meal Aug '22 (ZMQ22)
399 Closing
Soybean exports from Brazil are expected to total 91.5 million tonnes in 2023, up from the 77.2 million estimated for 2022, as the world’s biggest supplier prepares to plant a super crop.
The projection, made by private consultancy Safras & Mercado on Friday, reflects bullish yield and acreage forecasts for the next season, which comes after one in which a drought spoiled part of the crop.
“The recovery of Brazilian production, with a new record output potential, should also lead to a new export record,” Safras’ analyst Luiz Fernando Roque said in the statement.
If that scenario is confirmed, he said Brazil will be able recover some of the export market share lost to U.S. soy farmers due to the production drop in the 2021/2022 cycle.
According to Roque, strong domestic processing margins and potentially higher demand for biodiesel should also result in an increase in domestic crushing activity.
Safras foresees Brazil’s soybean crushing at 49.5 million tonnes in 2023, up from 47.9 million tonnes in 2022.
Brazil’s 2022/2023 soybean season will kick off in September in key states like Mato Grosso. The crop is expected to reach 154.53 million tonnes, up 18% from the previous cycle, according to Safras data.
Total demand for Brazilian soy — including domestic and export market demand — is forecast at 144.6 million tonnes, growing 13% over the previous year. If that projection is confirmed, ending stocks in Brazil would soar by 239%, from 2.93 million tonnes to 9.92 million tonnes, Safras added.
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA #520 USD
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina #475 USD- 465 USD October
Soybeans, FOB NOLA #615 USD VS 575 USD
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB #590 USD VS 585 USD
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Corn ----------------
Corn Sep '22 (ZCU22)
564.2 Closing
Market participants may be budgeting for below trend-line U.S. corn yields this year, which is a common notion during hot and dry stretches, but a decent contingent backs the current expectation to tie last year’s record.
On Tuesday, I asked Twitter users for their best guess of U.S. corn yield, and the prevailing choice was 173 to 176 bushels per acre with 44% of the more than 1,000 respondents. Just 19% thought yield will not reach 173 bpa.
However, some 28% see yield landing between 176 and 179 bpa, which has happened three times in history, and another 9% think something above 179 bpa is probable.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s trend corn yield of 177 bpa would tie last year’s high, and although the crop was planted later this year, it is in similar overall condition as a year ago based on ratings from USDA’s statistics service.
Corn, USA 2YC FOB 333.44 USD /1.00 + GULF
Corn, USA 2YC FOB 410.67 USD /2.96 +PNW
Corn, FOB Argentina port, Upriver#265 USD
Corn, FOB Romania 300USD
Corn, FOB Russia – 305 USD
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 305 USD
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS
CNF Indonesisa 370 Usd
CNF South Korea 360Usd
CNF Taiwan 380 Usd
CNF Philipines 400 Usd
CNF Malaysia 375 Usd
CNF Vietnam 385 USD
USA Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB 770 usd
UKRAINE Sunflower-# – CNF Main Port Asia – 420 usd
AUSTRALIA Feed Barley CNF Main Port Asia – 380 usd
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
6319$
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #75 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #60USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax ,#46USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Handy #25 USD
BS /China /Panamax #68 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #55 USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2022
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