Agriant Commodities------------04-09-2023 Grain and Feed News
- Ceyhun Besli
- Sep 4, 2023
- 8 min read
Agriant Commodities------------04-09-2023 Grain and Feed News
Hot Topics----------------------
Russia has launched a wave of drone attacks on one of Ukraine’s biggest grain exporting ports, hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart,
Ukraine’s Air Force early on Monday urged residents of Izmail port, one of the country’s two major grain-exporting facilities on the Danube River in the Odesa region, to seek shelter.
Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper later said 17 drones were downed over the southern region, but that the attack caused widespread damage to port infrastructure.
“17 drones were shot down by our air defense forces,” Kiper wrote on Telegram. “But, unfortunately, there are also hits. In several settlements of Izmail district, warehouses and production buildings, agricultural machinery and equipment of industrial enterprises were damaged.”
Kiper added that preliminary information indicated no casualties or injuries.
The drone assault came as Putin and Erdogan were to meet in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi to hold talks on a Ukrainian grain export deal that helped ease a food crisis in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia.The deal – brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022 – had allowed nearly 33 million metric tonnes (36 million tonnes) of grain and other commodities to leave three Ukrainian ports despite the Russian invasion.
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Wheat -----------------------
Wheat Sep '23 (ZWZ23)
595.4
Milling Wheat Sep '23 (MLZ23)
235.00s
Wheat prices weakened into the 3-day weekend. CBT SRW settled 5 ½ to 7 ¼ cents lower on the day, ending the week 26 ¼ cents lower in the Dec contract. KC HRW futures were 4 ½ to 5 ¾ cents weaker on Friday. That extended the Dec contract’s weekly drop to 41 ¾ cents. MGE HRS prices settled a penny to 7 cents in the red on Friday. The Dec contract was down 42 ¼ cents for the week’s move. Dec SRW dropped a net 89 ¾ cents through the month of August, Dec HRW was $1.02 ¼ lower, and Dec HRS fell $1.02 ¾ for the month.
The weekly Commitment of Traders data had managed money adding 8.2k new shorts in Chicago wheat during the week that ended 8/29. That took the group’s net short to 79,881 contracts – a 10-wk high. In KC wheat, the funds only added a net 713 contracts to positions. There was slightly more net new buying than net new selling, which slightly reduced their net short to 5,632 contracts. Spring wheat spec traders were adding shorts during the week according to the CFTC data. That extended their net short by 2.5k contracts to 8.76k.
Egypt's state grains buyer bought about a half a million metric tons of Russian wheat in a private deal, four traders told Reuters, succeeding in negotiating lower prices than those offered in the more traditional tenders.
One of the world's biggest importers of wheat, Egypt last year started shifting towards direct purchases instead of tenders after the war in Ukraine disrupted its buying.
The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) bought about 480,000 metric tons of Russian wheat from trading firm Solaris on Friday, at a price of about $270 a ton on a cost and freight basis (C&F), the traders said.
Australia is likely to lower its wheat production forecast for 2023/24 by about a million metric tons as dry El Nino weather reduces yields, traders and analysts said, tightening global supplies hit by poor harvests in rival exporters.
The world's second largest exporter of the grain, Australia is a key supplier to top buyers such as China, Indonesia and Japan, but a strengthening of the El Nino weather event suggests more dry weather in store after the warmest winter on record.
"Compared to last year, the crop's going to be over 10 million tonnes smaller," said Ole Houe, of agricultural brokerage IKON Commodities. "It's a big loss."
On Tuesday traders and brokers expect the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) to trim about a million tonnes from its June output forecast of 26.2 million tons, itself a 34% drop from the prior year.
That comes against the backdrop of three years of record-breaking Australian harvests following plentiful rainfall.
Poland's agriculture minister said that Warsaw will call on the EU to extend the import ban on Ukrainian grain, local media reported on Sunday.
Speaking at a news conference in Czestochowa, southern Poland, Robert Telus said that extending the import ban until the end of 2023 is beneficial for the country's farmers and for the EU, public broadcaster Polish Radio reported.
His remarks, calling them "a message from Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki," came ahead of the next week's meeting of the EU agricultural ministers in Spain.
Telus said that even if the EU decides to end the import ban on Ukrainian grain, Poland will not allow the import of Ukrainian grain.
He added that "the interest of Polish farmers is more important than any of the bloc's regulations."
According to the report, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria also support the extension of the ban besides Poland.
In June, the European Commission announced that it would extend the ban on Ukrainian grain until Sept. 15, an arrangement allowing five of Ukraine’s EU neighbors – Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia – to ban domestic sales of some Ukrainian grains.
The "exceptional and temporary preventive measures" was adopted on May 2 on imports of wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed from Ukraine under the exceptional safeguard of the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation.
Wheat BS 11.5 # FOB Panamax #210 usd
Wheat Ukraine 11.5 # Asia Main Ports #275 usd
Wheat BS FW # Asia Main Ports #255 usd
Wheat Australia SFW # Asia Main Ports #305 usd
Wheat Australia ASW # Asia Main Ports #315 usd
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Soybean & Soybean Meal --------
Soybean ZSX'23 (ZSQ23)
1356-2
Soybean Meal Aug '23 SMV23
401
The soybean market faded into Friday’s close, but stayed in the black for the settle with fractional to 2 ½ cent gains across the front months. Sep beans were down 3 ¾ cents on Friday during the delivery process. November futures were at a net 18 ½ cent loss for the week. Soymeal futures were the weak link on Friday, ending the session down by as much as $6/ton. The October contract closed $16.30/ton lower Fri/Fri. Soybean Oil futures rallied triple digits into the weekend, which limited the week’s move to a 15 point loss. USDA cited the B100 cash price as 13 cents weaker for the week in MN at $5.02/gal.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed 21.5k new spec bean longs for the week that ended 8/29 in addition to 11.3k fewer shorts. That extended the group’s net long to 90,985 contracts. The commercial soybean hedgers added 26.9k new shorts, taking their net short to 153k contracts as of 8/29. CFTC reported managed money was also rolling shorts to longs in meal, with 9.8k new longs and 11k fewer shorts in play. That left the specs with a 73.8k contract net long at the settle. The spec traders went for lighter BO exposure for the week, though more shorts were closed than longs leaving the group with a 58,317 contract net long.
The daily reporting system flashed another 198k MT new crop soybean sale to unknown destinations this morning.
The NASS Fats and Oils report showed 184.8 mbu of soybeans were processed in July. That was up 5.8% from the month prior, and 1.9% above July ’22 as a new record for the month (beating ’20 by 400k bu). The season’s crush sits at 2.043 bbu, compared to 2.029 bbu last year and the 2.220 bbu full year USDA forecast. NASS had BO stocks at 2.149b lbs.
The Monthly Biofuel Capacity and Feedstock report showed June soy oil use up 6% vs. May, at a record 1.207 bil. lbs. YTD BO use hit 8.81 billion lbs. by the end of June, up ~17% from last year.
Soybean USA # FOB Panamax # 550 usd --- -DEC -- # 545
Soybean Brasil # FOB Panamax # 545 usd
Soymeal Arg # FOB Panamax # 485 usd
Soymeal USA # Container V+95
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Corn ----------------
Corn Sep '23 (ZCZ23)
481
Corn settled 2 to 3 ¾ cents higher across the front month contracts on Friday. December futures ended ended the week with a net 6 ½ cent loss. Dec corn had seen a 49 ½ cent range through the month of August, but closed at a net 34 ¾ cent loss.
The weekly CFTC data showed the managed money corn traders were buying 10.6k new longs and buying back 8.1k existing shorts during the week that ended 8/29. That reduced their net short by 18.8k contracts to 87,348 as the group has been net short for 4 consecutive weeks. The commercial corn hedgers reduced exposure by 73.3k contracts through the week. More longs were closed than shorts, leaving the commercials with a 22.6k contract stronger net short of 103.5k contracts.
USDA’s weekly National Ethanol report cited cash prices for the fuel from $2.08 to $2.15/gal regionally. Most areas were 2 to 10 cents/gal higher for the week. DDGS were shown from $195-$210/ton regionally. Compared to last week, prices were within $20/ton of UNCH with near equal regions higher and lower wk/wk. The cash corn oil market was mostly weaker by 1 to 2 cents, from 66 to 70 cents/lb regionally.
The monthly Grain Crush data from NASS had 454 mbu of corn used for ethanol during the month of July. That was a 1.9% increase from July LY and a 2.7% increase from June’s draw, but was below the average pre-report estimate. The full year’s draw sits at 4.733 billion bushels – or 90.6% of USDA’s forecast. The august draw needs to have been 491.97 mbu (which would be a new all time record by 4.26 mbu) to hit the 5.225 bbu USDA forecast.
Brazil will overtake the United States as the world’s top corn exporter in the 2022-23 marketing year and is projected to be the leading exporter in 2023-24 as well, according to statistics from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The only other year in which Brazil topped the United States in corn exports was in 2012-13, a year in which a severe drought impacted US corn production.
The FAS estimates Brazil’s 2022-23 exports at 56 million tonnes, compared to only 41 million tonnes in shipments for the United States. In the current marketing year, which began Sept. 1, FAS forecasts Brazilian corn exports at 55 million tonnes, with the United States close behind at 52 million.
Brazil’s breakthrough is attributed to a bumper harvest and improvement in transportation logistics such as the consolidation of northern export routes, according to a Reuters report.
The country’s growing ties with China, which recently increased the number of Brazilian corn exporters approved to ship corn, also are playing a role in the increase. Until recently, the United States had been the largest supplier of corn to China, along with Ukraine, which has seen its exports decline due to the war with Russia.
The US corn industry also is being affected by a trade dispute with Mexico, its largest buyer, over a proposed ban of imports of genetically modified corn from the United States used for human consumption. Mexico amended its original decree, which banned all GM corn from the United States, to allow imports targeted for feed and industrial uses.
CORN USA # FOB Panamax # 225 usd
CORN UKRAINE # FOB Panamax # 206 usd
CORN ARG # FOB Panamax # 210 usd
CORN BRSL # FOB Panamax # 215 usd
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Other Container Prices -------------------
USA DDGS CNF Indonesisa 300 Usd
USA DDGS CNF South Korea 295 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Taiwan 295 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Philipines 315 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Malaysia 305 Usd
USA DDGS CNF Vietnam 310 USD
USA CGM CNF ASIA 745USD
UKRAINE SFM CNF ASIA 385USD
UKRAINE SFMP CNF ASIA 410 USD
AUSSIE BARLEY ASIA 300 USD
Freight----------------Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
$1527
Argentina / China/ Panamax, #47 USD (TO)
Argentina / Indonesia Panamax, #55USD (TO)
USA PNW / China /Panamax , #32USD
BS /Turkey ------ / Coaster #31 USD
BS /China /Panamax #45 USD
BS / Indonesia Panamax #55USD
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AGRIANT COMMODITIES present information based on sources /news there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein whether in an Copyright © 2023
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